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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNoSpacing>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>9:00 AM PDT MON SEP 23, 2013<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 8:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>A strong and moist WSW flow aloft will continue over Oregon today. Satellite imagery this morning shows cloudy skies, associated with a weak cold front, covering virtually all of western Oregon. Radar shows scattered showers across the Willamette Valley, with more showers moving onto the north coast.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Conditions will be too damp for burning today, with high relative humidity and continued shower activity. An additional tenth of an inch of rain may fall in the Silverton Hills.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Unseasonably cool with occasional showers.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Salem's high temperature today will be near 62 degrees (normal is 75).<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Relative humidity: Remaining above 70% throughout the day.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Surface winds: S 10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Transport winds: SW 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Salem’s sunset tonight: 7:07 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>(Salem Airport data for Sunday, Sept. 22nd: High 62°F; Rainfall: .22”)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>In the wake of today’s weak cold front, an unseasonably cool upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. That will maintain showery and quite cool conditions with a chance of thundershowers. Local quarter-inch rainfall amounts are possible.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>A drier northwesterly flow aloft will clear skies Thursday and Friday, with temperatures progressively recovering to near average. The flow aloft will turn southwesterly over the weekend, with a slow-moving cold front slated to bring more wet weather to the region by Sunday.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Notes:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> winds less than about 15mph.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>