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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNoSpacing>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>11:50 AM PDT THU AUG 21, 2014<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Agricultural burning is not recommended.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Prep burning is allowed from now until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Middle and high clouds continue to stream across northern Oregon at midday, in response to an increasing northwesterly flow aloft. An upper-level disturbance, sliding southward along the British Columbia coastline, will slowly turn the flow aloft more westerly this afternoon; setting up quite favorable burning conditions.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Mixing heights will rise to above 3000 feet, once surface temperatures warm into the low-70s and should rise to near 5000 feet by 2 p.m. An 11 a.m. PIBAL showed light SW winds below about 3000 feet; abruptly veering to NW above that level. Winds are expected to turn more westerly at all transport levels this afternoon. A significant surge of marine air into the valley tonight should be sufficient to evacuate any residual smoke.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Mostly sunny.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Salem's high temperature today will be near 79°F (average is 82°F).<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Surface winds: WNW 5-10 mph.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Transport winds: WNW 10-15 mph this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Mixing height: Rising above 5000 feet from 2 p.m. through 6 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Salem’s sunset tonight: 8:08 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>(Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 20th: High 79°F; Rainfall: .00”)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>An upper-level trough will move over the region on Friday. After areas of morning drizzle, expect partial afternoon clearing with a threat of showers. High temperatures will likely remain in the 70s. The upper-level trough is forecast to move east of the state over the weekend with a dry northwesterly flow aloft clearing skies and warming temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s. The updated long-range guidance is now building a fairly strong upper-level ridge over the region early next week, which would warm valley temperatures back into the 90s with generally north to NE transport winds.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Notes:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> and winds less than about 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><b>To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><a href="http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst">http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>