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<p class="MsoNoSpacing">SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 13, 2015<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Agricultural burning is not recommended.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Prep burning is not allowed. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest and will remain in place through the day. Skies are mostly cloudy with cloud buildups developing. Surface wind flow has been variable ranging from W to N at 3 – 5 mph. Pressure gradients
are +1.7 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.4 mb from Salem to Redmond. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Afternoon heating will increase cloud buildups and possibly bring scattered light showers. Moisture amounts are expected to be a few hundredths or less. Expect wind to increase from the NW to NNW early this afternoon to 5 – 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (average is 82).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Relative humidity: Will drop to a low of about 40 percent around 4 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Surface winds: Light and variable, becoming NW to N at 5 – 10 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Transport winds: Light and variable, shifting to NW to N at 5 – 10 mph this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Mixing height: Near or above 5000 ft throughout the day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem’s sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Salem Airport data for Sunday, Jul 12: High 83°F; Rainfall: .00”)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Upper level trough remains over the state through the week but weakens. This will bring more clearing each day. Temperatures will generally remain seasonably warm. Wind will be light during the overnight to early morning hours, favoring
a northerly flow. Afternoon winds increase but remain mostly northerly. Expect poorer mixing during the night and morning hours but continued good mixing during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Notes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> and winds less than about 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst">http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Nick Yonker<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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