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<p class="MsoNoSpacing">SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 3, 2015<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Agricultural burning is not recommended.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Prep burning is not allowed.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Our recent heat-wave was broken on Sunday, as an upper-level disturbance circulated enough clouds northward over the region to block the sunshine. That cooled maximum temperatures from the triple-digits down into the low-80s but with
very little in the way of rainfall across NW Oregon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Another upper-level disturbance, over southern Oregon, is continuing to circulate moisture and instability northward over the region this morning. Skies are generally cloudy across the northern two-thirds of Oregon, but radar is showing
little in the way of shower activity making it as far north and west as the Willamette Valley.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Even though the air aloft has cooled since Sunday, cloudy skies will retard surface heating and likely keep mixing heights below 3000 feet until at least 2 p.m. The moisture feed is expected to shift eastward this afternoon, as a drier
and more stable SW flow aloft develops over western Oregon. That should allow for some clearing, which would help late-afternoon temperatures climb into the upper-80s and lift mixing heights to around 4000 feet. In addition, increasing onshore flow may turn
transport winds northwesterly enough to allow for some burning.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Slight chance of showers or thundershowers this morning; afternoon clearing.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem's high temperature today will be near 87°F (average is 84°F).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Surface winds: Var 2-6 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Transport winds: NNE 2-6 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. to 4000 feet by 5 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem’s sunset tonight: 8:36 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 2nd: High 82°F; Rainfall: .00”)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">An upper-level trough, dropping southward along the British Columbia coastline, will turn the flow aloft more westerly Tuesday and Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected, but increasing low-level onshore flow will cool temperatures
back to near average. Morning marine clouds may penetrate into the Willamette Valley with sunshine likely in the afternoons. Gradient-stacking and north winds could be an issue, but there is potential for burning each day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">A weak upper-level ridge is expected to turn the flow aloft northwesterly Thursday and Friday. Onshore flow will begin to decrease with temperatures recovering to slightly above average by Friday.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Notes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> and winds less than about 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst">http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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