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<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">11:50 AM PDT SAT SEPT 17, 2016<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal"><br style="mso-special-character:line-break">
<br style="mso-special-character:line-break">
</b></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal">BURN ADVISORY:</b></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">N/A</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal">WEATHER DISCUSSION:</b></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">The rain this morning probably averaged about a tenth of an inch on the east side of Willamette Valley this morning and no one escaped a wetting rain. The moisture will keep relative humidity levels very high today to prevent
any burning. Mixing heights are good but it will not help with wet grounds.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Cloudy with periods of rain.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Salem's high temperature today will be near 67°F (average is 77°F).</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Relative humidity:<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>Falling no lower than 65% by mid-afternoon.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Surface winds: S 9-12 mph becoming SSW about 1:00 p.m.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Transport winds: SSW 10-14 mph becoming SW 15-20 mph by 1:00 p.m.
</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Mixing height: At least 5000 feet all afternoon.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Salem’s sunset tonight: 7:18 p.m.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">(Salem Airport data for Friday, September 16<sup>th</sup>: High 83°F; Rainfall: .00”)
</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100)</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count:10">
</span></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal">EXTENDED DISCUSSION:</b></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Any upper level trough will be just offshore or over Western Oregon most of the next week. There is still a good chance of rain tonight and Sunday so a drying day might have to occur on Monday. Southwest transport winds will
continue through the weekend and much of next week. The major question for burning through the next week will be whether showers occur on any particular day, and whether we have dried out enough to do so.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text"><font color="#0000ff" face="Courier New">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</font></a></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Notes:</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count:9">
</span></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>1.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>surface.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>As a practical matter it is the approximate height to</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>and winds less than about 15 mph.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count:8">
</span></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>2.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count:8">
</span></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>3.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count:8">
</span></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>4.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>terrain conditions.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span>For</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:</b></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><a href="http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst"><font color="#0000ff" face="Courier New">http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst</font></a></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Gary Votaw</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">ODF Meteorologist</p>
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