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<p class="MsoNoSpacing">SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">8:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016<b><br>
<br>
</b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Agricultural burning is not recommended.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Prep burning is not allowed.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">An upper level low centered over northern California will move into Nevada today as another system approaching in the Pacific nudges it eastward. The low caused the thunder yesterday and last night but as it is forced to move on so does
the instability.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">The thunderstorm last night in Salem was quite localized and east of I-5 rainfall reports received are mainly a trace. Relative humidity will be slow to fall today and mixing height again slow to rise, but are expected to reach burnable
levels. South winds will gradually turn west. The primary limiting factor for burning may be the pressure gradients though they are not far from balancing now and if we receive enough sunshine they should balance too.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>TODAY’s FORECAST<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Mostly cloudy with partial clearing in afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem's high temperature today will be near 69°F (average is 75°F).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 2:00 p.m. and near 50% at 5:00 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Transport winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SSW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 mph.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3000 feet by 5:00 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem’s sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23<sup>rd</sup>: High 73°F; Rainfall: .44”)
<b><o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">The approaching system contains significant moisture but is weakening. It will likely cause a period of rain in the middle of the day on Friday to limit burning potential. North or northeast winds will dominate the transport layer over
the weekend but no rain is expected. Monday and Tuesday appear to be possible burn days, especially Tuesday with northwest winds and maximal drying before that. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Notes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> and winds less than about 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst">http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Gary Votaw<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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