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<p class=MsoNormal>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 26, 2017</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>BURN ADVISORY:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Agricultural burning is not recommended.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Prep burning is allowed from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50
acre limit.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>WEATHER DISCUSSION:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>An upper-level disturbance approaches the northern coast
today, enhancing surface onshore flow throughout the Willamette Valley. Mixing
conditions will continue to develop through late afternoon and persist into the
evening as the disturbance nears. Positive gradient stacking is developing
mid-valley, and onshore flow up the Columbia River has weakened west of the Gorge,
indicating that a mid-valley marine push is more likely tonight. Field burning
possibilities remain, though the timeframe will be later in the day as a
result.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>TODAY’S FORECAST:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Partly Cloudy skies with afternoon haze.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Salem's high temperature today will be near 89°F (average is
84°F).</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Relative humidity:<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>
</span>Currently 50% and dropping near 30% by 5 p.m.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Surface winds: N 5-7 mph shifting NW 7-12 mph late
afternoon.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Transport winds: N 10 mph shifting W-NW 10-15 mph late
afternoon.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Mixing height: Near 3,000 feet currently and reaching 5,000
feet by 3 p.m.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Salem’s sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>(Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 25th: High 93°F;
Rainfall: .00”)</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75)</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-tab-count:10'> </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Weakened upper-level disturbances push through on Thursday
with SW flow aloft, and surface flow remains onshore with a mild sea breeze
bringing more clouds into Willamette Valley overnight. Field burning
opportunities may be limited if stubborn marine air can’t be pushed out by
these transient features aloft. W flow aloft develops overnight into Friday as
one of these disturbances enters the southern Willamette Valley, which should
allow mixing and surface flow to improve rapidly after sunrise; it will also
help build clouds over the Cascades Friday afternoon, causing positive
gradients to fade out as mountain showers push into central Oregon, so
potential field burning would begin and likely end early ahead of the weekend.
Upper-level ridging builds over Oregon for the weekend, helping to warm the
atmosphere and elevate temperatures back above seasonal averages. Mild mornings
and balmy afternoons persist under mostly sunny skies, with onshore flow
producing early evening sea breezes to close out the month of July.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available
at:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Notes:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-tab-count:9'> </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>1.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest
height at which the</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span
class=GramE>potential</span> temperature exceeds the potential temperature at
the</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span
class=GramE>surface</span>.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>As a
practical matter it is the approximate height to</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span
class=GramE>which</span> a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry
fuels,</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span
class=GramE>and</span> winds less than about 15 mph.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-tab-count:8'> </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>2.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Transport winds are a layer average through
the mixing height, </p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span
class=GramE>weighted</span> slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-tab-count:8'> </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>3.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing
layer (<span class=SpellE>ft</span>) times </p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span
class=GramE>the</span> transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-tab-count:8'> </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>4.<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Surface wind direction is the general
expected wind direction.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>At a specific
point surface winds are highly dependent on local</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span
class=GramE>terrain</span> conditions.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>This forecast is provided under an agreement <span
class=GramE>between the Oregon Department</span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=GramE>of</span> Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon
Department of Forestry (ODF).<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>For</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=GramE>information</span> contact ODA at
503-986-4701.</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>To add/remove your email address from this list, please go
to:</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst</p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Tom Jenkins, AEM</p>
<p class=MsoNormal>ODF Meteorologist</p>
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