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<p class="MsoNoSpacing">SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">8:50 AM PDT FRI AUG 25, 2017<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Agricultural burning is not recommended.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Onshore flow weakened overnight, and pressure gradients have turned mostly northerly this morning. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will begin building over the region today. As a result, a full day of sunshine is expected today
with valley temperatures warming back into the low 80s.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Warming aloft will likely cap mixing heights just under 5000 feet this afternoon. Mostly northerly winds should increase this afternoon.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Sunny, warmer, and breezy.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem's high temperature today will be near 83°F (average is 81°F).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% by noon and to 30% by 5 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph this morning; N 14-18 mph this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Mixing height: Rising to 3000 by noon and to near 4800 feet by 5 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Salem’s sunset tonight: 8:01 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 24th: High 78°F; Rainfall: .00”)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 86)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">A strong upper-level ridge is expected to warm temperatures to near 90°F on Saturday and the mid-90s Sunday and Monday. In addition, offshore flow will likely transport wildfire smoke back into the region.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">A very weak upper-level trough should turn winds onshore next Tuesday and Wednesday, which will bring some cooling, help to clear any wildfire smoke from the valley, and possibly create burning opportunities.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Another strong upper-level ridge is expected to build over the region later next week, with very warm temperatures and possibly more wildfire smoke.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Notes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> and winds less than about 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"> terrain conditions. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> 5. In accordance with OAR 837-110-0090, all field burning shall be
<span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> banned when any two of the following criteria are present:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> A. Temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or above<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> B. Relative humidity of 30 percent or below
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> C. Wind speed of 15 miles per hour or higher<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><b>To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><a href="http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst">http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing">ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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