SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, October 13, 2010       2:35 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


    THURSDAY
Upper level flow over the Pacific Northwest will be southwesterly ahead of an upper level disturbance moving towards British Columbia and northern Washington on Thursday.  A weak front reaches Oregon's north coast late in the afternoon.  Warm air aloft ahead of the front stabilizes the atmosphere and limits mixing heights to the 3000 to 3500 foot range.  Expect southerly winds and generally fair ventilation conditions.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
On Friday upper flow will be west-southwesterly with a weak ridge aloft.  The remains of the front that pushes into northwest Oregon on Thursday will sweep across the region, but with precipitation will be limited to some scattered, mainly mountain showers.   Otherwise expect dry weather and fair to good ventilation.  Saturday will see southwesterly flow aloft with dry weather and mild temperatures.  Transport level winds will be mostly light and variable.  Little change for Sunday with a weak upper disturbance moving through that could produce a few clouds, but expect dry weather, mostly northwesterly transport winds, and fair to good ventilation.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2700 - 3700 ft and rises to 3500 - 4500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.



Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2700 - 3700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SW to W and increases to 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SSW to W at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 14, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the S through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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