SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Sunday, October 17, 2010       2:35 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


    *** Marginal Smoke Ventilation Conditions ***
    MONDAY
Much of the early part of the week will dominated by a strong ridge aloft over most of the Pacific Northwest as a cut-off low meanders over southern California.  Subsidence (Sinking air motion) will warm the air aloft and limit mixing heights to low values.  Monday will see generally marginal smoke dispersal conditions.  Winds should mostly be from the northwest or north-northwest.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
The ridge-to-the-north/cut-of-low-to-the-south pattern is usually a slow-to-change pattern and little day-to-day variation is expected in weather through at least Wednesday.  Expect continued low mixing heights and marginal smoke dispersal conditions. On Thursday the low over southern California moves east as does the upper ridge to the north.  This will allow southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the eastern Pacific and the Pacific Northwest.  A Pacific cold front will ride this flow into western Oregon late in the day.  The subsidence aloft switches to rising air motion and maximum mixing heights should rise dramatically on Thursday.







2.  DISPERSION



MONDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1800 - 2800 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1800 - 2800 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 18, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:00pm.



Zone 633 - 638:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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