SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Monday, October 18, 2010       2:35 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638
    *** Marginal Smoke Ventilation Conditions Continue ***
    TUESDAY
An upper level "blocking" pattern continues with high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low spinning over the northern Baja peninsula of Mexico.  This is a slow-to-change pattern and the ridge is shunting Pacific weather systems to the north of the region.  Subsidence (or sinking air motion) aloft is holding mixing heights down.  This, together with generally light winds, will inhibit ventilation many areas.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
The upper level pattern begins a slow shift eastward on Wednesday.  Transport winds most areas will be light southeasterly.  The upper level flow goes southerly on Thursday and the region will be out of the area of strong subsidence aloft for higher afternoon mixing heights.  Transport winds will be mostly light and variable in the north and light southwesterly in the south.  On Friday, flow aloft will be from the southwest.  Models show a weakening Pacific front moving into northwest Oregon later Friday but no moisture is likely to reach east of the Cascades until Friday evening.





2.  DISPERSION



TUESDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1800 - 2800 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft during the morning and afternoon.  Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 19, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the NNE through ESE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



Zone 633 - 638:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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