SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, October 21, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



FRIDAY



The first in a series of progressively stronger weather systems will likely bring increasing clouds to the region but only a chance of a few light showers.  Cooling aloft will help to lift mixing heights slightly, but increasing cloud-cover will limit daytime heating.  South-southwesterly transport winds will begin to increase across the western zones, but winds will be light over the eastern zones.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair west but only marginal east.


OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)


The next weather system will likely be strong enough to bring some light rain to most areas Friday night and during the day on Saturday.  Rainfall totals will range from less than one-tenth of an inch to around one-quarter of an inch across the higher terrain.  Ventilation conditions will dramatically improve, with high mixing heights and increasing southwesterly transport winds.



A strong warm front will bring steady rain to the region Saturday night, followed by a moisture laden cold front Sunday morning.  This system could bring more than an inch rain along with strong south to southwesterly winds.  A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the snow level dropping from more than 6000 feet early Sunday to below 4000 feet on Monday.  Several inches of snow accumulation are likely, above 4500 feet, by Monday night.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2200 - 3200 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3600 - 4600 ft then lowers to 1000 - 1800 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

In the west mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 22 - 38 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.



MONDAY

Mixing height 3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 22 - 38 mph.  Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 22, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SE through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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