SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, October 22, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SATURDAY



The second in a series of progressively stronger weather systems is forecast to spread rain, from west to east, across the region during the morning.  Most areas will see around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch, with the greater amounts at higher elevations.  The cold front will weaken and push east of the region late in the day, with the rain tapering off to a few showers.  Increasing southwesterly transport winds and higher mixing heights should make for fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)


A warm front will spread steady rain back across the region Saturday night, followed by a strong cold front Sunday morning.  Rainfall totals from this system could exceed an inch, especially over higher terrain. The cold front will also produce strong south to southwest winds Sunday, locally gusting over 30 mph.



A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with the snow level dropping from more than 6000 feet early Sunday to near 4000 feet Monday and Tuesday.  Several inches of snow are likely, above 4500 feet, Monday and Tuesday.  Rain and mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY



Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 16 mph.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 10 mph during the evening.





OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

Mixing height 4200 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 21 - 37 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 20 - 36 mph during the afternoon.  In the west surface wind S to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  In the east surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height 3800 to 4800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 23, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the S through W of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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