SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, October 27, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



THURSDAY



The transitory upper-level ridge that was over the region on Wednesday is forecast to rapidly shift eastward to over the northern Rockies.  An approaching upper-level trough is digging southward offshore and is forecast to be centered about 300 miles west of the northern California coast by Thursday afternoon.  A moist south-southwesterly flow aloft will spread lots of clouds and a few showers across the region during the day.  Rainfall totals will likely be less than one-tenth of an inch.  The snow level will rise to between 6000 and 6500 feet.  Transport winds will be mostly southerly with fair smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)


The upper-level trough will continue digging southward Friday, with the center of circulation forecast to be just off the central and southern California coastline by Friday evening.  Southerly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy but with a decreasing chance of showers.  Transport winds will weaken with continued fair smoke dispersal conditions.



An upstream trough will act as a kicker system and eject the California eastward on Saturday.  The flow aloft is forecast to be southwesterly with transport winds also turning more southwesterly.  Smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair with only a slight chance of showers.  A weak cold front is forecast to bring a better chance of showers to the region Sunday.  Snow levels should remain in the 6000 to 6500 foot range with south to southwesterly transport winds and continued fair smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 16 - 28 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SE to S at 9 - 15 mph.





OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 7 - 13 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 28, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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