SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, October 23, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SUNDAY



Wet and windy weather is in store for all of Oregon on Sunday.  A warm front will spread steady rain across the region tonight (Saturday night). The third, and strongest, in a series of cold fronts will come onshore early Sunday morning and sweep across northeastern Oregon around midday.  Rainfall totals from this system could exceed an inch, especially over higher terrain.



The cold front will also bring strong southerly winds, with gusts of 30-40 mph common and local gusts to near 45 mph.  In the wake of the cold front, blustery winds will likely turn southwesterly.  Showers will be frequent, especially over higher terrain. Snow levels will rapidly drop, with accumulating snow likely, above 4500 feet, Sunday night.  South-southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will provide good smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Monday and Tuesday, with additional snowfall likely above 4500 feet.  Rain and mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday, as the flow aloft turns northwesterly and more stable.  A weak and transitory upper-level ridge should bring one dry day, on Wednesday, with warming aloft lowering mixing heights.  Smoke dispersal conditions should remain good on Monday and then deteriorate to fair on Tuesday and marginal on Wednesday.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 4000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 3800 - 4800 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to WSW to W at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph throughout the day.



Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 3500 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 4000 - 5000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to SW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 20 - 34 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SW to W and increases to 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 3900 to 4900 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 36 mph.  Surface wind SW to W at 9 - 19 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 24, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SW through W of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through W of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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