SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, October 28, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



FRIDAY



An upper-level trough will continue digging southward offshore, with the center of circulation forecast to be about 250 miles off the central California coastline by evening.  South to southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy but with a decreasing chance of showers.  Southerly transport winds will weaken with continued fair smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)


The upper-level trough will weaken and gets kicked inland Saturday with the main circulation center moving across northern California and Nevada.  A moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy over all of Oregon with a few areas of light rain.  Increasing southwesterly transport winds will maintain at least fair smoke dispersal conditions.



A weak cold front is forecast to bring a chance of showers to the region Sunday.  Snow levels should remain in the 6000 to 6500 foot range with south to southwesterly transport winds and continued fair smoke dispersal conditions. A building ridge of high pressure will rapidly lower mixing heights Sunday evening.



A warm front may bring some rain to mainly northern areas Monday, with snow levels lifting above 8000 feet.  Light southerly transport winds and suppressed mixing heights will likely provide only marginal smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 29, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the ESE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ESE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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