SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Tue Apr 19 14:16:10 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, April 19, 2011       2:35 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638

    WEDNESDAY

Upper level charts show a broad trough over the eastern Pacific and the western US for Wednesday.  An upper level jet cuts across the coastline into central California.  This leaves Oregon on the cool side of the jet stream and air mass temperatures will remain well below average for this time of year.  There will be only limited moisture available but showers are likely most areas.  The cold air aloft will help push mixing heights to high values and smoke dispersal conditions should be good.

    OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)

On Thursday an upper disturbance swings down from the northwest and phases with a disturbance moving westward across the Pacific to carve out a fairly sharp trough over the eastern Pacific and western US.  This should bring rain or snow to most areas.  The snow level will be down to about 3500 feet.  Smoke dispersal conditions will remain good.

The upper disturbances move east on Friday allowing weak ridging over the region.  Weather should be dry.  Mixing heights will be suppressed slightly but smoke dispersal conditions remain fair to good.  Low level flow will be from the south. The ridge moves east Saturday and a Pacific front moves in from the west.  Rain reaches western Oregon during the morning and spreads east during the afternoon.  Expect fair to good smoke dispersal conditions Saturday.

2.  DISPERSION

WEDNESDAY

Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then increases to WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SW to W and decreases to 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SW to W and decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

In the west mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3100 to 4100 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, April 20, 2011.

    ==================================================================

Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.

Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the WSW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 4:00pm.

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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