SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Sunday, April 24, 2011       2:35 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


    MONDAY
A fairly deep and compact upper level low moves west across the Pacific Ocean toward Vancouver Island on Monday.  The upper trough with this supports an active Pacific cold front.  The polar jet is estimated to exceed 175mph at the 30,000 foot level and cuts into North America over extreme southwest Oregon.  Oregon will be under the left front quadrant of the jet and thus prone to rainy weather.  Rain begins by mid morning with amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch.  Mixing heights will exceed 5000 feet and west southwesterly transport winds will be brisk for good smoke dispersal conditions.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
Minor ridging develops on Tuesday but the jet stream, while weaker, remains over the state.  Areas of light rain will continue through the day.  Transport winds will be brisk westerly most areas and maximum mixing heights will remain high for good smoke dispersal conditions.
Whatever minor ridging develops Tuesday and Tuesday night flattens Wednesday as another upper low and trough move toward the coastline.  There will be limited moisture but areas of light rain will continue.  High maximum mixing heights will give good smoke dispersal conditions most areas.
The upper trough moves in on Thursday supporting a cold front that reaches northwest Oregon early then spreads rain south and east during the day.  Precipitation will begin as rain with the snow level around 5000 feet but as the cooler air behind the cold front spreads in snow is possible at elevations above 2000 feet.  Smoke dispersal conditions will remain good.


2.  DISPERSION



MONDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Mixing height lowers to 2700 - 3700 ft during the evening.



Transport wind S to SSW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW and increases to 25 - 45 mph during the afternoon then decreases to W to WNW at 20 - 36 mph during the evening.



Surface wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW and increases to 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph during the evening.

Zone 633 - 638:



Transport wind SE to S at 12 - 22 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW and increases to 20 - 36 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 16 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW and increases to 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon and evening.





OUTLOOK:



TUESDAY

In the west mixing height 3700 to 4700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 2300 to 3300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3300 to 4300 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, April 25, 2011.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the S through WNW of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SE through WNW of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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