SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, May 7, 2011       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


-   Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season -

SUNDAY


An unseasonably cold upper-level trough is forecast to move directly over Oregon.  Rain and snow showers will be numerous with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.  Precipitation totals will mostly range from .10 inches to .25 inches. The snow level will drop to 4-5000 feet. Afternoon temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal, but cooling aloft should maintain fair to good afternoon mixing with northwesterly transport winds.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier north-northeasterly flow aloft developing over Oregon.  Showers will taper off, but ample clouds will continue to circulate around the parent upper-level trough and over northeastern Oregon.  The snow level will only climb to 5000 feet in the afternoon.  Cool surface temperatures and minor warming aloft will suppress mixing heights slightly, with brisk north-northwesterly transport winds.



Tuesday looks mostly dry and warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves onshore and over Oregon.  Skies should clear, from west to east, in the afternoon, with a threat of a morning shower, mainly near the Idaho border.  Daytime temperatures will recover to about normal, with mostly northerly transport winds and fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.



The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Wednesday morning, with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.  The latest computer guidance does not bring the next cold front onshore until around midday, so look for mostly sunny skies to give way to increasing clouds in the afternoon.  Some sunshine should help temperatures warm to about 5 degrees above normal.  Good mixing is expected with increasing south-southwesterly transport winds.  A chance of showers returns by evening.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NW to N at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NW to N at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 to 3700 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, May 8, 2011.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WNW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the WNW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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