SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, May 12, 2011       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



-   Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season -



FRIDAY



An upper-level low-pressure center will produce a warming south-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon but remain far enough offshore to greatly limit the threat of showers.  With just partly cloudy skies and warming aloft, daytime temperatures should climb to above normal. Afternoon heating will destabilize the air mass enough to produce some increase in cloud-cover and possibly a few showers or thundershowers, mainly over higher terrain.  Transport winds will be mostly southeasterly with fair to good afternoon mixing.



OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)



On Saturday, the offshore upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to slowly move closer to the southern Oregon coast.  Increasing south-southeasterly flow aloft will direct more moisture into the region.  Daytime heating will destabilize the air mass, with more widespread afternoon shower and thundershower development likely, especially over higher terrain.  Afternoon temperatures should warm to as much as 5-10 degrees above normal, especially east.  Transport winds will be south-southeasterly with fair to good daytime mixing.



The upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore Sunday and Monday, with a very cool and moist air mass over Oregon.  Expect numerous showers with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms each day.  The snow level should drop to 4-5000 feet with maximum surface temperatures plunging about 20 degrees, from Saturday, to around 10-15 degrees below average.  Cooling aloft will maintain fair to good afternoon mixing with mostly southwesterly transport winds.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind E to ESE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SSE to SSW and increases to 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then shifts to SW to WNW and decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the evening.



Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon then decreases to ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.



Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 13, 2011.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the ESE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the ESE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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