SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, May 11, 2011       2:35 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


    THURSDAY
An upper level low pressure area will spin off the coast Thursday and Friday then open up and move over Oregon and Washington over the weekend.  The remains of a weak cold front will move through during the day for some light rain.  It will be quite cool with temperatures 5 to 8 degrees below average.  Maximum mixing heights should be quite high for generally good smoke dispersal conditions but expect light shifting transport winds as the front works its way east.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
On Friday the upper low remains far enough offshore such that there is very little moisture available for precipitation.  Thus expect dry weather and with southerly winds aloft temperatures climb to 4 to 6 degrees above average.  Maximum afternoon mixing heights will remain high and smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair to good with a southerly transport flow.
Saturday showers develop as the upper low opens up and rotates into the area as an upper level trough.  Smoke dispersal conditions remain good with a southerly transport.  Temperatures will be about 5 to 9 degrees above average.
Sunday the upper trough is directly over the area.  Expect numerous showers and quite cool weather with temperatures tumbling to anywhere from 6 to 9 degrees below average for mid May.  Mixing heights should climb to around 4000 feet and transport winds stay southerly.

2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts and increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

Zone 633 - 638:



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon then shifts to N to NE at 8 - 14 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to N to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.





OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3600 to 4600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to E at 5 - 7 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3700 to 4700 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4:00pm.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WSW through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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