SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, May 4, 2011       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


THURSDAY


An upper-level ridge is forecast to flatten and shift eastward, to over the northern Rockies, as a weak upper-level trough moves across the Pacific Northwest.  Moisture is limited, so expect partly cloudy skies with only widely scattered showers over higher terrain.  Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.  Transport winds will start out southwesterly and veer to west to northwesterly in the afternoon.  Afternoon mixing should be good.

OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)

A westerly flow aloft is forecast for Friday, with the region between storm systems. Skies should be partly cloudy with just a risk of a mountain shower in the late afternoon and evening.  Temperatures should be near normal with westerly transport winds and good afternoon mixing.



A strengthening westerly jet stream will direct another cold front across the Pacific Northwest Friday night, with a cool upper-level trough moving onshore Saturday.  Expect mostly cloudy skies Saturday with rain and snow showers likely by the afternoon.  The snow level will start out near 7000 feet and drop to near 5000 feet late.  High temperatures will hold near normal.  Transport winds will me mostly westerly with good afternoon mixing.



By Sunday, another unseasonably cold upper-level trough will make camp over the Pacific Northwest.  Rain and snow showers will be widespread with precipitation totals over .10 inches common.  The snow level will drop to 4-5000 feet. Cold air aloft should make for good mixing with west-northwesterly transport winds.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to W to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the evening.



Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2300 - 3300 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to W to NW and increases to 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to W to NW and increases to 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

In the west mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 5, 2011.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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