SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, October 9, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



SUNDAY



A strong southwesterly jet stream will push an active cold front onshore in the morning. The chance of rain will increase, from west to east, during the afternoon.  Increasing southwesterly transport winds and frontal mixing will make for good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  Winds will veer to northwesterly, in the wake of the cold front, Sunday evening.  Post-frontal shower activity will be limited, Sunday night, because the air aloft will not cool much.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


The flow aloft is forecast to dry out and turn northwesterly on Monday.  Transport winds will weaken and turn northerly, with clearing skies providing enough heating for fair to good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.



As the upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, increasingly strong surface-based inversions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.  Areas of morning valley fog are possible; depending somewhat on the amount of rain that falls on Sunday.  Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected.  Suppressed mixing heights, due to the upper-level ridge, and light transport winds will likely make for fair to poor smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2300 - 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 10, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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