SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Sunday, October 17, 2010       2:40 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


    MONDAY
Much of the early part of the week will dominated by a strong ridge aloft over most of the Pacific Northwest as a cut-off low meanders over southern California.  Maximum mixing heights will be somewhat suppressed but smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair to good.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
The ridge-to-the-north/cut-of-low-to-the-south pattern is usually a slow-to-change pattern and little day-to-day variation is expected in weather through at least Wednesday.  Mixing heights drop slightly on Tuesday then rebound a bit on Wednesday.  Otherwise expect sunny and dry weather with occasionally marginal, but mostly fair smoke dispersal conditions. On Thursday the low over southern California moves east as does the upper ridge to the north.  This will allow southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the eastern Pacific and the Pacific Northwest.  A Pacific cold front will ride this flow into western Oregon late in the day, but any rainfall from this system will hold off until Friday and much of south central Oregon will escape with no rain at all.





2.  DISPERSION



MONDAY

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.



Surface wind NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning rising to 3900 - 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3900 - 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 18, 2010.

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Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the NNE through E of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the NNE through ESE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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