SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Monday, October 18, 2010       2:40 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625




    TUESDAY
An upper level "blocking" pattern continues with high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low spinning over the northern Baja peninsula of Mexico.  This is a slow-to-change pattern and the ridge is shunting Pacific weather systems to the north of the region.  Subsidence (or sinking air motion) aloft is holding mixing heights down somewhat.  Expect fair smoke dispersal conditions most areas.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
The upper level pattern begins a slow shift eastward on Wednesday.  Transport winds most areas will shift to south or southwesterly.  The upper level flow goes southerly on Thursday and the region will be out of the area of strong subsidence aloft for higher afternoon mixing heights.  Transport winds will be mostly southwesterly.  On Friday, flow aloft will be from the southwest.  Models show a weakening Pacific front moving into northwest Oregon later Friday but most precipitation should remain north of the region through the early part of the weekend.





2.  DISPERSION



TUESDAY

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2700 - 3700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning rising to 3600 - 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 19, 2010.

==================================================================



Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the ENE through ESE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the ENE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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