SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, October 22, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



SATURDAY



The second in a series of progressively stronger weather systems is forecast to spread rain, from west to east, across the region during the pre-dawn hours.  Most areas will see around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch, with the greater amounts at higher elevations.  The cold front will weaken and push east of the region by late morning, with just a chance of afternoon showers.  Fresh southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights should make for good smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)


A warm front will spread steady rain back across the region Saturday night, followed by a strong cold front Sunday morning.  Rainfall totals from this system could exceed an inch, especially over higher terrain. The cold front will also produce strong southwesterly winds Sunday, locally gusting over 45 mph.



A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with the snow level dropping from more than 6000 feet early Sunday to near 4500 feet Monday and Tuesday.  A couple of inches of snow are possible, above 5000 feet, Monday and Tuesday.  Rain and mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Mixing height lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.



Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.



OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 25 - 45 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph.



MONDAY

Mixing height 3800 - 4800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 18 - 32 mph.  Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 23, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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