SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, October 23, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



SUNDAY



Wet and windy weather is in store for all of Oregon on Sunday.  A warm front will spread steady rain across the region tonight (Saturday night). The third, and strongest, in a series of cold fronts will come onshore early Sunday morning and sweep across south-central Oregon in the late-morning.  Rainfall totals from this system could exceed an inch, especially over higher terrain.



The cold front will also bring strong southerly winds, with gusts of 30-40 mph common and local gusts to near 45 mph.  In the wake of the cold front, blustery winds will likely turn southwesterly.  Showers will be frequent, especially over higher terrain. Snow levels will rapidly drop, with accumulating snow likely, above 4500 feet, Sunday night.  South-southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will provide good smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Monday and Tuesday, with additional snowfall likely above 4500 feet.  Rain and mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday, as the flow aloft turns northwesterly and more stable.  A weak and transitory upper-level ridge should bring one dry day, on Wednesday, with warming aloft lowering mixing heights.  Smoke dispersal conditions should remain good on Monday and then deteriorate to fair on Tuesday and marginal on Wednesday.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Mixing height lowers to 3300 - 4300 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 30 - 50 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 29 - 49 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 20 - 36 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 18 - 30 mph.  Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 16 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 24, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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