SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Monday, October 25, 2010       2:40 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625




    TUESDAY
The main jet stream is to the south of the region on Monday, cutting across the coastline near San Francisco.  Skies will be mostly cloudy with a chance of a scattered shower or two although most areas should remain dry.  Blustery west-southwest winds will continue.  Mixing heights will climb to 5000 feet or above during the afternoon for good smoke dispersal conditions.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
A developing upper level low offshore helps build high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest.  Subsidence and warming aloft will limit maximum mixing heights to around 3000 feet.  Weather should be dry Wednesday and smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair.  On Thursday the offshore low moves to within about 250 miles of the northern California coast.  Upper level flow backs to southwesterly over the region and warm air aloft should keep maximum mixing heights to near 3000 feet or so but southerly transport winds should help ventilation.  On Friday the upper low slides into California.  Expect a chance of light rain, south-southeasterly transport winds and improving mixing heights.







2.  DISPERSION



TUESDAY

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 8 - 14 mph during the evening.



Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 26, 2010.

==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the WSW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the WSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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