SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, October 27, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



THURSDAY



The transitory upper-level ridge that was over the region on Wednesday is forecast to rapidly shift eastward to over the northern Rockies.  An approaching upper-level trough is digging southward offshore and is forecast to be centered about 300 miles west of the northern California coast by Thursday afternoon.  A moist south-southwesterly flow aloft will spread lots of clouds and light rain at times across the region during the day.  Rainfall totals will likely range from around one-tenth to one-third of an inch.  The snow level will rise to near 6500 feet.  Transport winds will be mostly southerly with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)


The upper-level trough will continue digging southward Friday, with the center of circulation forecast to be just off the central and southern California coastline by Friday evening.  Southerly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy but with a decreasing chance of showers.  Fair to good smoke dispersal conditions will continue with southerly transport winds.  The snow level will remain near 6500 feet.



An upstream trough will act as a kicker system and eject the California eastward on Saturday.  The flow aloft is forecast to be southwesterly with transport winds also turning more southwesterly.  Smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair to good with only a slight chance of showers.  A weak cold front is forecast to bring an increased chance of showers to the region Sunday, but most of the precipitation from this system will likely stay to the north.  Snow levels should remain in the 6000 to 6500 foot range with south to southwesterly transport winds and continued fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.





OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2700 - 3700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 28, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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