SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, February 9, 2011       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


THURSDAY
Dry weather will continue with mostly sunny skies.  The axis of a broad upper-level ridge is forecast to move close to the coastline.  Subsidence will further suppress maximum mixing heights with generally light transport winds and poor smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)
On Friday the upper ridge axis is forecast to move east of the Cascades with the flow aloft becoming more westerly.  Skies should remain mostly sunny with some increase in high clouds.  Transport winds are forecast to increase and turn south-southwesterly during the afternoon.  Maximum mixing heights will rise slightly with smoke dispersal conditions becoming poor to marginal.

On Saturday a Pacific cold front is forecast to spread rain and mountain snow across western Washington, and northwestern Oregon, with increasing clouds across south-central Oregon.  A chance of light rain will spread into the region Saturday night.  Smoke dispersal conditions will become marginal to fair, with cooling aloft leading to slightly higher afternoon mixing heights.  South to southwesterly transport winds will continue to increase.

By Sunday, the flattened upper-level ridge axis is forecast to be near the Oregon/Idaho border with westerly flow aloft over Oregon.  The first in what appears will be a series of Pacific storms is forecast to weaken over northern Oregon, with only a chance of light rain extending into south-central Oregon.  The snow level is forecast to remain above 6000 feet. Smoke dispersal conditions should remain marginal to fair with southwesterly transport winds.


2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Mixing height below 500 feet early rising to 800 - 1200 feet by late morning rising to 1400 - 2000 feet during the afternoon.  Mixing height lowering below 500 feet in the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1700 - 2700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624



This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, February 10, 2011.

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Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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