SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, May 5, 2011       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


FRIDAY


A strengthening westerly jet stream will push another weather system onshore late in the day.  Clouds will be increasing, with a slight chance of light showers, mainly north, by the late afternoon.  Ahead of the cold front, temperatures should remain a few degrees above normal.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good with mostly westerly transport winds.


OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

In the wake of the cold front, an impressive upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore Saturday.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers.  Temperatures will drop back to near or slightly below normal.  With cooling aloft, look for good afternoon mixing with brisk west-southwesterly transport winds.



By Sunday, another unseasonably cold upper-level trough will make camp over the Pacific Northwest.  Rain and snow showers will be numerous with precipitation totals near .10 inches. Surface temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal, but cold air aloft will continue to produce good afternoon mixing.  Transport winds will veer to northwesterly.  The snow level will drop to near the valley floors Sunday night, with showers beginning to taper off.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier northerly flow aloft developing over Oregon.  Skies will begin to clear, with brisk northerly transport winds.  Surface temperatures will remain below normal, but the air aloft will stay cool enough for good afternoon mixing.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3700 - 4700 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 6, 2011.

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Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the WSW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the WSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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