SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, May 6, 2011       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


-   Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season -

SATURDAY


In the wake of an early morning cold front, an impressive upper-level trough is forecast to bring increasing showers by the afternoon. Rainfall totals should be mostly less than .10 inches. Temperatures will drop back to slightly below normal with the snow level dropping to 6000 feet.  Cooling aloft will make for good afternoon mixing with brisk west-southwesterly transport winds.


OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

On Sunday, an unseasonably cold upper-level trough is forecast to move directly over Oregon.  Rain and snow showers will be numerous with widespread precipitation totals near .10 inches. The snow level will drop to near the valley floors, with surface temperatures around 10 degrees below normal.  Cold air aloft should maintain good afternoon mixing.  Transport winds will veer to west-northwesterly.  Showers should taper off Sunday night.

By Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier north-northeasterly flow aloft over Oregon.  Skies will begin to clear, with only a slight chance of a shower.  The snow level will rise to around 6000 feet in the afternoon, but surface temperatures will remain well below normal.  Brisk northerly low-level winds and minor warming aloft may slightly suppress afternoon mixing heights.



Tuesday looks mostly dry and warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves onshore and over Oregon.  Skies should become mostly sunny with light northerly transport winds possibly turning onshore in the afternoon.  Daytime temperatures will recover to slightly above normal, with fair to good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to W at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 7, 2011.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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