SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, May 12, 2011       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



-   Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season -



FRIDAY



An upper-level low-pressure center will produce a warming south-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon but remain far enough offshore to greatly limit the threat of showers.  With just partly cloudy skies and warming aloft, daytime temperatures should climb to above normal. Afternoon heating will destabilize the air mass enough to produce some increase in cloud-cover and possibly a few showers, mainly over higher terrain.  Transport winds will start out south-southeasterly and veer to south-southwesterly by late-afternoon.  Mixing should be fair to good.



OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)



On Saturday, the offshore upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to slowly move closer to the southern Oregon coast.  Increasing south-southeasterly flow aloft will direct more moisture into the region.  Daytime heating will destabilize the air mass, with more widespread afternoon shower and thundershower development likely.  Afternoon temperatures should cool back to about 5 degrees below normal with mostly southerly transport winds and fair to good mixing.



The upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore Sunday and Monday, with a very cool and moist air mass over Oregon.  Expect numerous showers each day with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms, mainly on Sunday.  The snow level should drop to near the valley floors with maximum temperatures plunging to more than 15 degrees below average.  Cooling aloft will maintain fair to good afternoon mixing with southwest to westerly transport winds.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 - 5000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to S to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 13, 2011.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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