SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, May 7, 2011       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


-   Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season -

SUNDAY


An unseasonably cold upper-level trough is forecast to move directly over Oregon.  Rain and snow showers will be numerous with widespread precipitation totals near .10 inches. The snow level will be near the valley floors, with surface temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal.  Cold air aloft should maintain good daytime mixing with northwesterly transport winds.  Showers should taper off overnight.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier north-northeasterly flow aloft over Oregon.  Skies should slowly clear, with a decreasing chance of showers.  The snow level will rise to around 5500 feet in the afternoon, with surface temperatures remaining about 10 degrees below normal.  Afternoon mixing should be good with brisk transport winds veering from north-northwesterly to mostly northerly.



Tuesday looks mostly dry and warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves onshore and over Oregon.  After a cold morning, skies should become mostly sunny with northerly transport winds possibly turning more north-northwesterly in the afternoon.  Daytime temperatures will recover to slightly above normal, with good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.



The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Wednesday morning, with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.  The latest computer guidance does not bring the next cold front onshore until around midday, so look for mostly sunny skies to give way to increasing clouds in the afternoon.  Some sunshine should help temperatures warm to about 5 degrees above normal.  Good mixing is expected with increasing southwesterly transport winds.  A chance of showers returns by evening.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon then decreases to NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to N at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, May 8, 2011.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the W through N of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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