SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Sat May 15 14:23:42 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Saturday, May 15, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SUNDAY

The upper-level ridge is forecast to progress east of the state with increasing southwesterly flow and slow cooling aloft over western and central Oregon.  The surface thermal trough will shift eastward, to near the Idaho border, by late afternoon, with onshore flow penetrating east of the Cascades.  Morning inversions will give way to fair to good afternoon mixing.  Southwesterly flow aloft will combine with daytime heating to destabilize the air mass enough for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms near the Cascades.  Temperatures will begin to cool but remain above normal.

    OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

A weather system is forecast to move mainly into northern California, on Monday.  Increasingly moist and unstable southerly flow aloft, and onshore transport winds, will lead to scattered showers with temperatures cooling back to near normal.  There may also be some afternoon thunderstorms, mainly near the Cascades.  A weak and transitory upper-level ridge will bring drying on Tuesday.  Northwesterly flow aloft and onshore transport winds will continue the cooling trend.  Increasing southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to drive a cold front onshore Wednesday with rain likely for most zones.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2100 - 3100 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3800 to 4800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, May 16, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons, or less, south of T30S.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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