SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Sat Oct 9 14:28:14 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Saturday, October 9, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SUNDAY

A strong southwesterly jet stream will push an active cold front onshore in the morning.  Rain will increase, from west to east, across the entire region Sunday.  Brisk southwesterly transport winds will decrease and veer to northwesterly, in the wake of the cold front.  Post-frontal showers will be limited, mainly to the mountains, Sunday night, with the snow level only dropping to 7000 feet.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

The flow aloft is forecast to dry out and turn northwesterly by Monday morning.  Clearing skies should lead to morning surfaced-based inversions with recent rains likely leading to areas of valley fog formation.  Transport winds will turn light northerly across the northern zones and northeasterly across the southern zones.  That will aid in the drying of the low-level air mass and should help to clear fog from most valley locations in the afternoon.  Some sunshine should provide enough heating to improve mixing, with fair afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.

Strong surface-based inversions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, as the upper-level ridge moves directly over Oregon.  Morning valley fog and low clouds should be more widespread with afternoon clearing. Low mixing heights and light offshore transport winds will likely make for poor smoke dispersal conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N and decreases to 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 10, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

All zones except zone 610

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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