SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Oct 14 14:00:24 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, October 14, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

FRIDAY

The upper-level flow will turn west-southwesterly, in the wake of a weak cold front that will be exiting the state.  A surface ridge of high pressure will nose onshore and turn transport winds north to northeasterly.  Skies will start out mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower, mainly north.  Some afternoon clearing will improve mixing enough for fair smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

The upper-level flow is forecast to turn a bit more southwesterly on Saturday, which will maintain dry conditions.  Warming aloft will begin to suppress mixing heights with only marginal to fair afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  An upper-level trough is forecast to move into California on Sunday and Nevada on Monday, with a ridge amplifying over Oregon.  That will continue to bring dry weather to the region with warming aloft further suppressing afternoon mixing.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2100 to 3100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 15, 2010.

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Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607, 608, 616, and 623

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 609 and 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 617

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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