SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Sat Oct 16 14:11:24 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Saturday, October 16, 2010       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

Weak upper level trough over the region today will dissipate and give way to an upper level ridge that will build into the region through early next week.  Surface high pressure will build to the north with a thermal trough moving up from California.  This will bring mostly northerly to offshore flow.  Expect mostly sunny skies with patchy fog in the valleys during the morning.  Air mass will further stabilize and with generally light wind flow, make for poor smoke dispersion.

    OUTLOOK (MONDAY - WEDNESDAY)

Upper level ridge continues to strengthen over the state Monday and Tuesday before slowly shifting eastward on Wednesday.  Expect little change in the pattern with high pressure to the north and a surface thermal trough to the south maintaining a N to NE wind flow.  Expect continued stable conditions through the period and poor smoke dispersion.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early, rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early, rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning, rising to 1200 to 2200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early, rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning, rising to 1200 to 2200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 17, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, and 610

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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