SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Oct 21 14:25:30 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, October 21, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

FRIDAY

The first in a series of progressively stronger weather systems will likely bring some very light rain to much of western Oregon in the early morning, with a decreasing chance of showers during the day.  Rainfall totals will likely range from around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch.  Cooling aloft will lift mixing heights and south-southwesterly transport winds will provide fair to good daytime smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

The next weather system will spread more significant rain across western Oregon Friday night and Saturday, with an additional one-half to three-quarters of an inch likely by Saturday evening.  The rain should briefly let up in the afternoon with increasing south-southwesterly transport winds making for good smoke dispersal conditions.

A strong warm front will renew the steady rain across western Oregon Saturday night, followed by a moisture laden cold front early Sunday morning.  This system could bring another 1-2 inches of rain, especially north, along with strong southerly winds.  A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the snow level dropping from more than 6000 feet early Sunday to below 4000 feet on Monday.  Several inches of snow accumulation are likely, above 4000 feet, by Monday night.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 605-611 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to SW at 28 - 48 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 25 - 45 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 20 - 36 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 22, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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